Plans for 2010 call for further revision of our tools, and the development and adaptation of new tools. Work is in progress to develop a Stories, Scenarios and Simulation Workbook, with templates, exercises and ideas for how you can use storytelling, scenario-planning exercises, simulations and stakeholder exchanges for helping your group or organisation to integrate futuresmeasures into strategy development and programming. The workbook will also focus on how to adapt these tools for different contexts and purposes.

The HFP has been working on scenario-planning tools for some time, and will be refining and testing this tool during 2010. If you would like to be involved in this process, please contact us at info@humanitarianfutures.org

Scenarios available

The HFP has already developed some scenarios to help partner organisations consider the kinds of crises and solutions that might be in the coming years.

Speculating about the future is one important step in developing the agility and perspectives necessary for thinking more creatively about the future and the present. Speculation too, done seriously, should also open doors to new forms of collaboration and new insights into innovation – all essential in meeting the challenges of the future.

Story-telling, simulations and scenario development are all techniques useful for scoping ‘what might be’sand how we might prepare for these. There are links at the bottom of this page to some recent HFP examples of scenarios, intended to provide the reader with an opportunity to ask:

• Is this scenario plausible?
• How would I know if it was plausible or not?
• What might be the humanitarian consequences of this scenario?
• If this scenario suggests a plausible reality, what might be the effects on my own organisation?
• How would my organisation deal with it?
• With whom should my organisation be working to deal with the implications of the scenario, or could my organisation do it alone?
• What should have been done to mitigate the likelihood that the scenario would not have taken place?
• What would I have to know to enhance my organisation’s response?

In one way or another, each of these scenarios has been used in particular contexts, as noted at the top of each scenario. Please click on the list below to see scenario examples.

You can also download the SSS project outline below:

Scenario 1: Scarcity, pollution and conflict in a Far East Asian context: 2025-2030

Scenario 2: From the favelas of Sao Paulo to global pandemics

Scenario 3: Cascading Displacement and its Consequences

Scenario 4: Synchronous Failure in Mumbai

Scenario 5: Multihazard Risks in the Ferghana Valley

Scenario 6: Water Pollution in West Africa

Downloads

Operationalising Futures - SSS.pdf
Operationalising Futures - SSS.pdf  548.75 KB