The activities of the HFP Futures Group focus on developing a greater understanding of how humanitarian organisations deal with scientific uncertainty and how they can establish the capacity to integrate evolving scientific learning within their planning processes.

The HFP Futures Group has identified and developed a range of tools and approaches to promote effective dialogue between scientists and humanitarian policy makers – recognising that these two groups may not regularly interact. To date, the HFP Futures Group has developed and tested the following tools and approaches which have enabled effective dialogue.

• A series of seminars on specific issues of future vulnerability and innovative technologies and approaches, which can reduce vulnerability and enhance capacity for effective response. Seminar topics have encompassed ageing, remote sensing, radiation, horizon scanning, nanotechnology, urbanisation and risk analysis.
• A science and technology fair for scientists and humanitarian policy makers to present relevant technologies and key concerns regarding future human vulnerabilities.
• Tailored scenario-development exercises: fully worked scenario-development exercises (SDEs) can be extremely useful tools for brokering dialogue between a wide range of scientists and humanitarian policy makers. The HFP undertook a successful SDE within its work with the Economic Community of West African States. This consisted of a series of individual interviews with a wide range of scientists and culminated in a two-day workshop to identify key risks, and to develop and present a futures scenario to a range of regional decision- and policy-makers. However, SDEs take time to develop and implement. It can be useful to break the exercise down into a smaller series of components or events which can be run discretely, but which together promote increased understanding of the range of expertise needed to inform future planning. (See tools page on Stories, Scenarios and Simulation workbook)
• Partnership Analysis Network (PAN). To enhance humanitarian organisations’ capacity to engage with other actors and emerging vulnerabilities, the PAN enables them to assess the kinds of expertise and networks with which they should be seeking to establish direct and ongoing links.( See tools page on PAN)
• Two-way, peer exchanges between scientists and humanitarian policy makers. In the United Kingdom, the Futures Group has conducted a series of pilot exchanges between climate scientists and humanitarian policy makers. The aim was to provide policy makers with a deeper understanding of the range of existing climate information, and to afford climate scientists greater insight into the operational environment and opportunities for informing humanitarian planning.

The Futures Group has now developed a proposal to extend this exchange, employing innovative approaches and tools to promote greater understanding and more effective application of climate science within humanitarian decision-making processes. The exchange encompasses a series of collaborative demonstration studies, where national, regional and international climate scientists work with community, national and international humanitarian policy makers to examine how climate science can inform different levels of decision making . Planned tools for promoting such enhanced exchange include:

• games to demonstrate the use of probabilistic scientific information, such as seasonal forecasting
• joint climate-science/policy-maker workshops in regions where demonstration studies are carried out
• joint visits and discussions with community members at the site of project activities.
• identifying channels for community concerns to inform the focus of current and future research agendas.
• Opening up existing science–policy fora to the humanitarian and development community. This involvesidentifying relevant existing fora at local, national, regional and international levels which do not yet fully encompass humanitarian policy makers’ participation. The kinds of fora which require enhanced humanitarian policy makers’ engagement might include: regional climate outlook fora; and discussion within universities, government ministries and national academies of science on issues such as genetically modified crops and nanotechnology, which have significant potential impact on future vulnerability. When such fora have been identified, a component can be integrated to support the participation of humanitarian policy makers.
• Creating a forum for ongoing dialogue between scientists and humanitarian and development policy makers. This involvesidentifying opportunities for creating fora in which humanitarian policy makers can regularly come together, learn about, and inform a range of scientific disciplines relevant to future vulnerability.