Inter and intra-state conflict will continue to persist over the next decade in various East African countries, principally Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Sudan and Somalia. The assumption underlining this case study is that there will be prolonged periods of massive displacement and refugee flows at various times over the next decade. The potential causes of these flows will be intermittent clashes between a re-emerging Somali state and Ethiopia, the consequences of the 2011 referendum in the Sudan and an emerging power vacuum on the northern borders between Kenya and the Sudan.  Kenya will bear the brunt of the refugee flow, the sheer size of which will intensify environmental degradation that is already impacting upon the livelihoods of the country’s rural populations. At the same time, the scale of these flows will increase the impact of potential epidemics.

Political upheavals and consequent violence have marked the internal and inter-state histories of Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia and the Sudan since the end of the 1980’s. In one way or another these have led to flows of refugees into other countries, eg, Kenya, and to massive internal displacement, eg, Somalia, Sudan. In total, between 1995 and 2006, the international community has supported on an annual basis 1.2 million to 1.6 million refugees stemming from this region and on average 342,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs), with an annual maximum of 1.2 million IDPs during this period.